The 2025-26 season in numbers: what 719 recommendations tell us
A full football season of Axia Model output: 719 recommendations, +15.3% return on level stakes, nine profitable months in ten. The season read month by month.
Author
David Adams
David Adams is a Sports Data Analyst at Axia Signals Group. He works on the evaluation of the Axia Model and the published performance record, and writes the Insights programme on how the model prices football matches and where it finds value the wider market has missed.
David's work at Axia centres on three questions: whether the model's edge is real, whether it is stable, and whether it is being measured honestly. He spends most of his time inside the published record, settling recommendations against results and reading each season for what the headline numbers leave out.
He writes the Insights programme the way the company approaches its work: in plain language, with the data shown, and with the losing months reported as plainly as the winning ones. A poor October belongs in the record at the same size as a strong April, and David's analysis treats it that way.
Every figure in a David Adams article reconciles to a line in the recommendation log that was written before the matches were played. That is the standard the Insights programme is held to.
Articles
Everything by David Adams.
Why the sports betting market keeps growing, and what it means for analysis you can trust
The global sports betting market is forecast to reach $187 billion by 2030. Why the growth is structural, and why it raises the value of trusted analysis.
Earning from a betting market without taking a bet: how Axia's subscription model works
Axia is not a bookmaker and takes no bets. How a subscription model earns from a growing betting market while carrying less regulatory weight than an operator.
How the model finds value the market has mispriced
Edge detection is not outcome prediction. How the Axia Model prices each match itself, then acts only on the gap against the bookmaker, with the data to show it.
Nine months up, one down: what a 16% October taught us about a real edge
October 2025 was the Axia Model's only losing month, down 15.9%. Why a drawdown is evidence of a genuine edge, and exactly what the model did next.
Tracked, not claimed: the case for publishing every result
Curated winners are easy. A public record that shows the losing months too is harder to publish, and the only version worth trusting. Why Axia tracks every result.
Why the US market is ready for something more serious
US bettors wagered $167 billion in 2025, up 23% in a year. Why a market that grew this fast is now ready for evidenced, data-led analysis over noise.
Reading the market into the 2026 World Cup
A World Cup resets the fan base and floods the market with casual money. It also creates mispricing. What the Axia Model watches ahead of the 2026 tournament.
Building an asset, not a content business
Most sports media sells opinion or attention. Axia set out to build something measurable: a model with an edge, and a public record that proves it.